Paul Graham - «Coronavirus and Credibility»: some citations

These people constantly make false predictions, and get away with it, because the things they make predictions about either have mushy enough outcomes that they can bluster their way out of trouble, or happen so far in the future that few remember what they said.

Now that we've seen the results, let's remember what we saw, because this is the most accurate test of credibility we're ever likely to have.